Luis Robert is one of the most exciting young players in the game. When the White Sox anointed the former top prospect as their Opening Day starting center fielder last season, he was a popular preseason AL Rookie of the Year pick by many pundits throughout the sport.

Robert flashed a tantalizing combination of power, speed and center-field defense and was terrific in the first two months of the abbreviated 2020 season.

In September and October, however, Robert fell off a cliff, hitting a dismal .136/.237/.173, which opened the door for Kyle Lewis to win AL Rookie of the Year over him.

Robert’s max exit velocity of 115.8 in 2020 was the seventh-highest among all qualified hitters in MLB, and he ranked fourth among all players in outs above average. The two biggest things that held him back last year were his propensity for chasing pitches out of the zone and his inability to make contact on pitches in the zone. In 2020, only six players swung at a higher percentage of pitches outside the strike zone and only two players made contact on pitches in the zone less frequently than Robert.

So far, Robert is off to an excellent start in 2021, hitting .316/.359/.463. Though the power numbers haven’t been there yet (1 HR), he’s made improvements in several areas, which has unlocked some of his potential as a hitter.

Robert swings at 83.3% of pitches in the strike zone. That is the fourth-highest mark in the league and is slightly up from 81.1% last year.

As mentioned above, his inability to make contact on pitches in the zone limited the damage he could do at the plate. Robert has improved dramatically in that area this year. After making contact on just 68.3% of pitches in the strike zone last season, he is connecting on 81.4% of such pitches in 2021. That number ranks just 104^th in the league, but it represents the second-greatest improvement among all hitters since last year.

Largest increase in in-zone contact rate, 2020-2021

198 qualified hitters

1. Nicky Lopez (KC): +13.4 points (82.4% to 95.8%)
2. Luis Robert (CHW): +13.1 points (68.3% to 81.4%)
3. Omar Narvaez (MIL): +12.4 points (77.2% to 89.6%)
4. Ronald Acuña Jr. (ATL): +11.9 points (73.7% to 85.6%)
5. Gregory Polanco (PIT): +9.1 points (66.8% to 75.9%)

Robert has also seen the eighth-best improvement in the league since last year on overall whiff rate. His ability to make more contact has helped him trim his strikeout rate by 5%. It’s also a big reason why he is hitting .316 so far.

The encouraging part is his bat-to-ball skills have been better against all three pitch types: fastballs, breaking balls and offspeed pitches.

Robert's in-zone whiff rate by pitch type, 2020-21

• Fastballs: 33.2% to 17.3% (-15.9 points)
• Breaking: 23.5% to 20.3% (-3.2 points)
• Offspeed: 55.6% to 16.7% (-38.9 points)

Clearly more repetitions in the big leagues have led to better timing at the plate. Last year, Robert’s 43.6% whiff rate on four-seam fastballs was the 12^th highest in the league, but he has improved that to 27.7%, which is still a bit high but much better.

Though Robert hasn’t flashed the same kind of game-changing power that he did last season, the fact that he is making much more contact suggests a power surge is on the horizon. Robert’s hard-hit rate (39.7%) is nearly identical to what it was in 2020 (40.5%) and his max exit velocity of 113.6 mph ranks in the top 8% of the league. We also know that he has even more power than that, as evidenced by his 115.8 mph max exit velocity last season.

By making more contact in the zone and whiffing less overall on all three pitch types, his expected batting average has gone way up across the board.

Robert’s xBA vs. each pitch type, 2020-21

• Fastballs: .218 to .262 (+44 points)
• Breaking: .240 to .275 (+35 points)
• Offspeed: .168 to .263 (+95 points)

It’s too early in the season to know if Robert’s progression is here to stay or simply just a hot first month, but the early returns are encouraging.

There is still one area of concern that gives pause to Robert’s early-season improvements. He is still chasing far too many pitches outside of the strike zone. Last year, he had the seventh-highest chase rate in the league at 39.6%. So far, he is swinging at even more pitches out of the zone at a 41.7% clip, the sixth-highest in the league.

Against breaking balls, Robert’s chase rate has improved slightly, but he’s regressed against offspeed pitches and particularly against fastballs.

Robert’s chase rate vs. each pitch type, 2020-21

• Fastballs: 31.4% to 37.8% (+6.4 points)
• Breaking: 47.7% to 45.2% (-2.5 points)
• Offspeed: 43.2% to 46.4% (+3.2 points)

Robert is always going to be a very aggressive hitter, and that’s part of what makes him so dangerous at the plate. For him to maximize his potential as a hitter though, he needs to continue to refine his plate discipline.

Part of that can be attributed to his aggression early in at-bats. Last season, Robert swung at the first pitch more often than any other hitter in baseball, and that trend has continued so far in 2021.

First pitch swing percentage leaders, 2021

1. Luis Robert (CHW): 53.4%
2. Travis, d’Arnaud (ATL): 52.9%
3. Nick Ahmed (AZ): 52.2%
4. Corey Seager (LAD): 52.0%
5. Anthony Santander (BAL): 50.0%

Robert has seen the second-most first-pitch strikes of any hitter this season at a 75.7% rate, which is an increase of 7.9 percentage points from last season. Much of that is obviously due to Robert’s generally aggressive approach, but it doesn’t tell the whole story.

The only hitter in the league who has seen more first-pitch strikes than Robert in 2021 is Yadier Molina. In contrast to Robert, Molina does not rank in the top-20 in percentage of at-bats that result in a first-pitch strike. That suggests Robert’s chase issues contribute to his first-pitch swing tendency.

Swinging at the first pitch often isn’t always a bad thing, but it’s part of the reason why Robert has a low walk rate of 6.8%. His walk rate last year of 8.8% was not much better, which factored into his low on-base percentage in 2020.

It will be interesting to see if pitchers eventually take note of his aggressiveness early in counts and begin to throw him fewer first pitches near the zone to take advantage of his chase tendencies. Either way, Robert is going to have to improve his plate discipline in order to take the next step. He has All-Star level upside if he can improve that part of his approach.