When James Franklin sat at the podium after Penn State’s 27-26 loss to Ohio State at Beaver Stadium in 2018, he passionately spoke about needing to elevate the Nittany Lions from a great program to an elite one.

Despite beating Ohio State in 2016 and losing by just one point in 2017, Ohio State outgained Penn State 942-559, showing that there was still a massive gap in talent.

In 2018 though, even after squandering a 26-14 lead with eight minutes left to play, Penn State looked like it was evenly matched with the Buckeyes for the first time since Franklin arrived and that the talent gap between the two teams appeared to be closing.

However, in the teams’ two matchups since that night in Happy Valley, Ohio State has put to rest any questions about if its status as the top program in the Big Ten was in jeopardy.

Ohio State beat Penn State 38-25 Saturday night for its fourth win in a row over the Nittany Lions in a game that was not nearly as close as the scoreboard showed. The Buckeyes are now 12-0 in Big Ten games since Ryan Day took over for Urban Meyer at the start of 2019 and look as dominant as they’ve ever been.

Meanwhile, for a Penn State team that entered 2020 with College Football Playoff aspirations, things seem to be going in the opposite direction. The Nittany Lions already had tough sledding ahead without linebacker Micah Parsons and running back Journey Brown, but since then they’ve lost their second running back Noah Cain to a season-ending injury and have endured plenty of growing pains offensively under new coordinator Kirk Ciarrocca.

Most concerning of all though is that rather than inching closer to becoming elite, Penn State seems to have hit a wall and the talent deficit with Ohio State has only widened since 2018.

That gap is a direct result of the difference in recruiting between the two programs over the last several years. James Franklin arrived at Penn State in 2014, and he’s had more success on the recruiting trail than Penn State has ever had since 247Sports began keeping track of recruiting results in 2000.

Before Franklin arrived, Penn State’s average recruiting class ranking was 26^th. The six full recruiting classes (2015-2020) Franklin has signed in his Penn State tenure have an average ranking of 14^th.

That is a very good ranking and Penn State has developed into one of the better programs in the country in large part because of the talent that Franklin has accumulated. The problem is Ohio State’s recruiting since Franklin arrived has still been astronomically better.

In that same time span, Ohio State’s average recruiting class ranking is sixth with only one class ranking outside the top-seven (2018-14th).

If you add up the total combined yards for each team in their last five matchups, Ohio State has outgained Penn State 2,274 to 1,603, an average difference of 134 yards per game. That’s with Penn State having the advantage in total yards 492-389 in the 2018 game. Furthermore, Ohio State currently has 14 former five-star recruits on its roster compared to just one of such players for Penn State.

Take a look at every FBS national championship team over the last decade and the four recruiting class rankings that comprised those teams:

The four-year recruiting class average ranking of all those teams combined is sixth, which is exactly where Ohio State has been on average since Penn State hired Franklin.

On the other hand, Franklin’s average class ranking of 14^th is lower than all of those teams except for 2010 Auburn.

Now let’s compare those teams to Franklin’s four best classes he’s signed at Penn State in descending order: 2018 (6th), 2019 (12th), 2015 (14th), 2017 (15th). That averages out to 11.75, which is still below all of those teams except for 2010 Auburn and 2016 Clemson.

One has to wonder if those results would be a little better if Penn State had managed to beat Ohio State in 2017 and/or 2018 instead of blowing big fourth-quarter leads in both of those games.

You’ll also notice that only three teams that have won a national championship in the last decade had an average recruiting class ranking that was outside the top-10: 2010 Auburn, 2016 Clemson and 2018 Clemson.

What’s been the difference-maker for those teams? All three of them had generational talents at quarterback to make up for not having top-10 recruiting over a four-year period.

Auburn’s 2010 national title team had Cam Newton, who won the Heisman Trophy and subsequently was the first overall pick in the 2011 NFL Draft. 2016 Clemson had Deshaun Watson, who was another first-round NFL Draft pick in 2017 and was arguably the greatest quarterback in modern college football history. And 2018 Clemson had Trevor Lawrence, who is the best quarterback prospect since Andrew Luck. He has a great chance to lead Clemson to another national title in 2020.

To sum all that up, what we’ve learned in the past decade is that in order to win a national championship, you must consistently sign top-10 classes or sign a generational talent at quarterback.

For as much as Franklin has improved Penn State’s recruiting, he has not done either of those things, and that is the reason Penn State has not made the jump from great to elite.

There was a time back in 2018 when Penn State almost signed that kind of quarterback to add to its already sixth-ranked recruiting class.

For that reason, it’s had to be particularly painful for Franklin and Penn State fans over the past two years seeing Justin Fields dominate the Big Ten, considering he was once committed to Penn State.

Instead, the five-star quarterback and No. 2 overall player (Lawrence was ranked No. 1) in the country eventually chose Georgia. Fields then transferred to Ohio State after one season sitting behind Jake Fromm and has developed into arguably the best quarterback the Buckeyes have ever had.

In fairness, while generational talents like Fields and Lawrence are pretty easy to recognize, quarterback recruiting rankings are often inaccurate because it is an extremely complex evaluation process. In every class, some highly ranked quarterbacks don’t pan out while some lower-rated prospects outperform expectations and become first-round NFL Draft picks.

Penn State has seen that firsthand with former five-star quarterback Christian Hackenberg.

Hackenberg was Penn State’s quarterback in Franklin’s first two years at Penn State, but he was signed by Bill O’Brien in 2013.

Franklin so far has had two quarterbacks that he’s recruited start games for him at Penn State: Trace McSorley (3 stars, 2014) and Sean Clifford (4 stars, 2017).

McSorley was a great story and developed into an outstanding player after being recruited by most schools as a safety rather than a quarterback, while Clifford was a former Elite 11 quarterback who’s been solid for Penn State in his first two years as a starter.

However, neither of those guys is the type of generational quarterback talent who is good enough to win a national championship without elite recruiting.

By comparison, Ohio State’s quarterbacks in Franklin’s time at Penn State have been J.T. Barrett, Cardale Jones, Dwayne Haskins and Fields.

Nobody will mistake Barrett for being an all-time great quarterback talent, but he’s the Big Ten’s all-time leading passer and led the Buckeyes to three Big Ten titles and two College Football Playoff appearances in four seasons. Jones’ NFL caliber arm propelled Ohio State to a national title in 2014 after Barrett went down with a fractured right ankle.

Haskins started only one year in 2018 but in that one season, he broke the Big Ten single-season record for passing yards and touchdowns, led the Buckeyes to a Big Ten title and Rose Bowl win and was a top-10 NFL Draft pick in 2019.

And of course, there’s Fields, who was a higher-rated recruit than all of them and will likely be a top-three draft pick next spring.

If Franklin cannot sign top-10 classes consistently, he’ll have to unearth a quarterback talent like Haskins or Fields in order to close the gap with Ohio State.

What’s more concerning for the Nittany Lions as of late is their struggles to attract blue-chip talent (defined as a four or five-star prospect) in their home state of Pennsylvania.

Franklin has failed to sign the top player in the Keystone State three years in a row (OT Andrew Kristofic, WR Julian Flemming, OT Nolan Rucci) dating back to the 2019 recruiting cycle. Losing Fleming to Ohio State was a particularly devastating blow.

Fleming, the No. 1 wide receiver in the 2020 cycle, did not play Saturday against Penn State. For anyone who argues that Fleming made the wrong choice because he’s not playing a lot right now at Ohio State and would be playing more at Penn State, that’s exactly the point that shows the talent gap between these two teams.

Penn State is starting a true freshman in former four-star Parker Washington, and classmate KeAndre Lambert-Smith, also a four-star recruit, has also seen significant time in Penn State’s first two games this season.

Penn State needs those two to contribute early because of a lack of veteran talent outside of Jahan Dotson.

Conversely, Fleming’s path to the field is blocked this year because of older talented receivers like Garrett Wilson, a 2019 five-star recruit, Jameson Williams, a 2019 four-star recruit and Chris Olave, who is a potential first-round draft pick in 2021.

In the 2020 recruiting cycle, there were four blue-chip prospects in Pennsylvania and Penn State signed just one of them (DE Zuriah Fisher), the same number Ohio State signed by swiping Fleming.

The current 2021 cycle is even worse news for Penn State. Of the 11 total blue-chip Pennsylvania prospects in the class, only one (ATH Lonnie White Jr.) is committed to Penn State and two are committed to Ohio State (QB Kyle McCord and WR Marvin Harrison Jr.)

For those hoping Ohio State will just tail off after Fields is gone, McCord is a five-star prospect, which gives Ohio State some insurance down for the future when Fields likely bolts for NFL after this season.

Looking farther down the road, Ohio State is also the heavy favorite to land five-star 2022 quarterback Quinn Ewers from Southlake, TX. Although high school quarterbacks are difficult to project, chances are one of McCord or Ewers lives up to his five-star billing.

One more problem Franklin has to solve is recruiting in Philadelphia. Since Franklin arrived there have been 12 blue-chip prospects in the Philadelphia area and Penn State has landed only two of them (CB John Reid, OT Ryan Bates), both of which came in the 2015 cycle. For the record, McCord and Harrison are both Philadelphia products too.

When Franklin was hired, he spoke about dominating the state on the recruiting trail. He has recruited Pennsylvania extremely well for the most part, but that hasn’t been the case for the last two years. Even more troubling is the fact that Ohio State has arguably recruited the state better in that time period.

The bottom line is for Franklin to truly close the talent gap with Ohio State, he needs to take the next step in recruiting by signing top-10 classes consistently. That starts with getting back to dominating Pennsylvania and keeping Ohio State away from the state’s best players.

Ohio State is always going to attract elite talent from all over the country. It’s up to Franklin to match that talent.