Bryce Harper's improved plate discipline paving the way for monster season
After the bullpen squandered yet another early lead en route to the Phillies’ fifth straight loss, the team currently sits at 9-14, the second-worst record in the National League, with the abbreviated 2020 season now 38% complete.
The Phillies bullpen presently holds an 8.33 ERA, the worst in MLB history. It has been so disastrous that it has made one of the best offenses in the league almost irrelevant.
The Phillies offense is third in on-base percentage, fifth in OPS, seventh in batting average and slugging percentage and has the second-fewest number of strikeouts in MLB.
Bryce Harper’s torrid start has been a vital part of that success. He was very good last year (35 home runs, 114 RBI, 128 OPS+, 4.6 FanGraphs WAR) but many viewed his 2019 season as a mild disappointment because he was not an All-Star selection after signing a 13-year, $330-million contract that offseason.
His 2020 start though has been so strong that his numbers right now are even better than his unanimous MVP season in 2015, which was one of the greatest individual years of all time.
In that 2015 season, he posted a slash line of .330/.460/.649 with a 197 wRC+. While his current .343/.478/.714 line and 210 wRC+ probably isn’t sustainable for even a shortened 60-game season, he’s made several noticeable improvements in his approach from last year that has led to the increased production.
In 2019, his walk percentage (14.5%) was already in the top 4% of the league and that has gotten even better, rising to 18.7% this year.
More importantly, though, Harper struck out in 26.1% (20th percentile) of his plate appearances in 2019, but this year he’s chopped that rate down all the way to 15.4% (84th percentile). That is the third-largest improvement of anyone who had 400 plate appearances last year and at least 50 so far this year.
When comparing the different types of pitches he’s swung and missed the last two years, his whiff rate for fastballs (24%) and offspeed pitches (38%) have been identical.
His improvement against breaking pitches has been astronomical though. In 2019, he swung and missed on 49.5% of breaking pitches thrown to him, but he’s dropped that all the way down to 31% in 2020.
Part of it is that he's seeing fewer two-strike counts than he ever has (24%), which is somewhat due to him swinging at the first pitch (49.5%) more than he ever has.
But the bigger difference has been his swing selection against breaking balls. Last year, Harper swung at 70% of breaking balls in the strike zone, and 35% of them out of the zone. This year those numbers have moved to 85% in the zone and 25% of out of the zone.
And he’s making contact on pitches in the zone at a slightly higher percentage, from 76% in 2019 to 80% in 2020. That has allowed him to get on base more frequently and slug a higher percentage, as a result.
Just look at the monumental difference in his production against breaking pitches:
| BA | SLG% | wOBA | |
| 2019 | .195 | .414 | .293 |
| 2020 | .385 | .462 | .387 |
Furthermore, the improvements against those pitches have yielded better results against all other pitches.
| Fastball BA | Fastball SLG% | Offspeed BA | Offspeed SLG% | |
| 2019 | .302 | .597 | .248 | .422 |
| 2020 | .333 | .846 | .333 | .611 |
Again, these numbers probably are not sustainable for the rest of the season. Harper will likely hit a cold streak at some point, but regardless of how he performs for the rest of this 60-game season, his numbers should still look gaudy.
He may never come close to replicating his superhuman 2015 season, but he has been one of the best hitters in the game for the last decade and has made great improvements to his approach in year two with the Phillies.
To this point in his 13-year contract, he’s proven to be well worth the $330 million investment. As much as the Phillies inept bullpen has overshadowed his prolific offensive output, he’s been a treat to watch so far in 2020.